ABSTRACTIn this paper, a comparative analysis is carried out among the industrial sectors in Colombia that have the most employees during 2000-2011. A dynamic simulation is used, and a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied in order to obtain an overall index of technical efficiency in Colombia's industrial sectors for the use of resources. Similarly, an industrial sector efficiency ranking for exports is drawn up. This index determines the presence of unused resources, which is useful to devise strategies to support exports. The analysis is based on a Monte Carlo simulation forecast to determine the average values of the period for the input variables: number of businesses, employees, assets, and energy used to produce the output variables. That is, gross production and exports. The purpose is to compare the effectiveness of the factors of production to generate exports, and determine the possibility of improving inefficient sectors. The goal is to participate in the internationalization process in a proper way.JEL: C51, G32, D22, C61, F14KEYWORDS: Dynamic Simulation, Financial Analysis, DEA, ExportsINTRODUCTIONIn the current scenario of economic integration and free trade liberalization, the analysis of sectorial efficiency constitute a dynamic area of research, since the competitiveness of a country or region is linked in direct way with efficiency gains that leads to improvements in productivity. During the period 2000-2011, industrial sector in Colombia accounted for an average of more than 13% of gross domestic product (GDP), 56% of total annual exports, and 13% of the employed population. Nevertheless, this sector has experienced a period of decline in their relative importance in the economy and the export's growth rate was lower than total exports rate, which may some disadvantages to articulate it to the world's current export conditions of industrial sector.From the economics' perspective, the concept of efficiency takes into account the lowest amount of inputs (capital, raw materials, man hours, machine hours, and so on) to get to a certain amount of outputs (profits, production, value added, goals met, etc.). Therefore, efficiency involves using society's resources as efficiently as possible to meet individual wants and needs (Samuelson & Nordhaus, 2002). It also involves the best possible use that a society makes of limited resources (Gregory, 2004). Similarly, achieving the highest production at the lowest possible cost is considered efficiency (Pinzon, 2003), as well as the capacity of a system or economic agent to meet certain goals by using resources as little as possible (Simon, 2005). Previous empirical work have focused in the performance of industrial exports in Colombia. These studies show that exports have passed through a slow process of export diversification, which depend on natural resources and low-technology products (Lotero, 2007; Torres & Gilles, 2013). Using industry data, Loaiza (2012), estimates that productivity's growth is associated with the increase in foreign investment and tax incentives to the import of capital goods. At the sector level, Villalobos & Vallejo (2005), find that industrial agglomeration have positive effect on the technical efficiency in clothing sector. From a methodological viewpoint, DEA is an analysis model through which homogeneous decision making units can be compared with regard to inputs and outputs. This generates a production or relative efficiency measure. The basic principle is to calculate the relative technical efficiency of each unit by means of a ratio that results from the quotient between the weighted sum of the outputs and the weighted sum of the inputs. The weights are determined according to Pareto criteria, where each unit's efficiency, for the input version, must be less than or equal to the unit (Charnes, et al., 1978). In this context, the purpose of this study is to compare the technical efficiency of the industrial sector exports in Colombia using a DEA-CCR input-oriented model suggested by Banker et al. …
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FuenteInternational journal of management and marketing research