espanolEl analisis futuro de la pertinencia de la PPCTeI, evalua posibles escenarios prioritarios alrededor de su despliegue en Colombia. Los elementos de analisis emergen mediante Teoria Fundamentada y consulta con expertos, analizando la opinion de docentes actores del Sistema, quienes proyectaron las hipotesis al 2034, mediante la aplicacion de SMIC PROB EXPERT. Se priorizaron cuatro de 64 escenarios posibles, donde los expertos resultaron escepticos de superar la problematica alrededor de la pertinencia de la Politica, ademas identifica que la formacion de doctores es relativamente autonoma y que los fallos en gobernabilidad, depende del exito de las demas hipotesis. EnglishThe analysis of future scenarios of the relevance of the PPCTeI evaluates possible priority scenarios around its deployment in Colombia. The analysis elements emerged through Grounded Theory and consultation with experts, analyzing the opinion of teachers actors of the System, who projected the hypotheses to 2034, through the application of SMIC PROB EXPERT. Four of 64 possible scenarios were prioritized, where experts were skeptical of overcoming the problem around the relevance of the Policy, also identifies that the training of doctors is relatively autonomous and that the failures in governance depends on the success of the other hypotheses.