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Modeling the International-Trade Network: A Gravity Approach

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ID Minciencias: ART-0000385280-14
Ranking: ART-ART_B

Abstract:

This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological properties are compared to observed ones. Furthermore, we propose an estimation strategy to predict the binary ITN with a GM. We find that the GM successfully replicates the weighted-network structure of the ITN, only if one fixes its binary architecture equal to the observed one. Conversely, the GM performs very badly when asked to predict the presence of a link, or the level of the trade flow it carries, whenever the binary structure must be simultaneously estimated.

Tópico:

Global trade and economics

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FuentearXiv (Cornell University)
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Enlaces e Identificadores:

Scienti ID0000385280-14Minciencias IDART-0000385280-14Openalex URLhttps://openalex.org/W2952185103
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