This article aims determined by a probabilistic model, a value measure of financial risk in companies in the city of Medellin, which in 2013 reported financial information with the superintendence of industry and commerce. It was performed filtering and analysis of financial statements of companies, and then proceed to determine financial risks of liquidity, debt and portfolio recovery by calculations of relevant indicators, the above was performed using probit model, later to validate the Logit model by applying a model to establish the risk levels, all this by developing a study on a quasi-experimental, retrospective model. Among the main findings they were that 73.44% had financial risk, compared to 26.56% who did not have financial risk, the sector with lower financial risk is information and communications with 48.65% of companies and May the risk is Construction with 80.39%. Finally, the sector with the highest number of companies is Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, which are 26% of companies in the city of Medellin, only 21.69% of the companies did not present financial risk during 2013. Of the three indicators used in the model, the highest risk is Portfolio Recovery, where 78.30% of companies have increased turnover to 60 days. The findings confirm the hypothesis that liquidity portfolio debt and do not adversely affect the financial risk of SMEs, besides that employers make no management to reduce the financial risk in their organizations.