In this paper is estimated the probability of bankruptcy for companies in the real sector of leather and footwear, and are established financial and organizational determinants that determine her, using a probit model with random effects for unbalanced panel data. For that corporate financial information database of the Superintendence of Companies, for the period between 2008-2013, is used; companies in the sample set are classified in solvents and business risk, based on criteria for intervention and control of the government entity. Various financial ratios of liquidity, profitability, asset efficiency, leverage is working to establish the explanatory variables of the proposed model. The results show that the variables of efficiency of total assets decrease the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy, while financial leverage increases it.