The foresight exercises are very diverse and in worldwide literature appear several approaches for the recoIlecting and treatment process of information. Furthermore, it' s common to al! this methodologies the necessity of processing a large quantity of data emitted by a relatively big group of persons that, for Ihe foresight, are known as experts, because they usually have knowledge about a particular theme that common persons don't manage. Delphi method is one of the most common, which pursuits the acquirement of a trustworthy group opinion beginning from a set of individual opinions is characterized for the maintenanceofits participants anonymity and of a controlled feedback. The results of the consensus on the actual Delphi studies use series of statistics that don't necessarily make converge the expert's opinion. On this articIe the usage of these statistical techniques is avoided by the matching of dates of development of events (nearest date, most likely date and farthest date) with triangular fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy sets were created to represent mathematically uncertainty and vagueness, under a non-statically approach, and to provide formalized tools to enter upon the intrinsic imprecision that present many problems of the environment. Based on fuzzy logic it could be implemented a software designed for the triangular fuzzy number integration and in this way obtaining the opinion convergence. Software characteristics and a study example are presented.
Tópico:
Multi-Criteria Decision Making
Citaciones:
4
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FuenteIngeniería y desarrollo: revista de la División de Ingeniería de la Universidad del Norte