The financial management in the current organizations has a diverse range of techniques and methods to analyze the behavior of its events, some of them with the intention to anticipate and to manage in a proactive way the conduct of such. This work describe the credit risk and in a particular way study this, models it and quantified it in terms of probability, the risk of failure in the University Pontifica Bolivariana, for his product facturacion pregrado Medellin, through the Logit model . In conclusion the model explains this risk of failure from a combination of six highly manageable endogenous variables, three academic; POA (academic average), PER (lost of subjects), AVA (advance in program) and three financials; VAM (Cost of Subjects), DIH (historical Failure) and ESE (socioeducative layer).