ImpactU Versión 3.11.2 Última actualización: Interfaz de Usuario: 16/10/2025 Base de Datos: 29/08/2025 Hecho en Colombia
El Baile Rojo: impacto de la violencia política sobre el comportamiento electoral, el caso de la Unión Patriótica (1984-2007) (The Red Dance: Impact of Political Violence on Electoral Behavior, the Case of Patriotic Union (1984-2007))
This paper studies the causal effect of political violence against Union Patriotica (UP) on electoral behavior in the local power elections (Mayor and Municipal Council) held in Colombia between 1984 and 2007. Through an empirical strategy of event studies, I provide evidence for municipal Council elections that suggests that political violence against the UP generated an increase in votes for traditional parties between 0.15 and 0.26 standard deviations (SD). Furthermore, it reduced the votes for left-wing parties between 0.53 and 0.92 DE and decreased political participation between 0.27 and 0.44 SD. Finally, in Mayor elections I found that violence against this community produces a decrease in electoral participation between 0.2 and 0.24 SD.