Abstract This study constructs a multidimensional livelihood index (MLI) using data from Syrian refugees in Lebanon to identify households who are currently poor. The MLI is then used to predict households' vulnerability to future poverty using a three‐stage Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) model. The analysis identifies more precisely which households and geographical locations are vulnerable to experiencing prolonged poverty. This study is among the first to adapt the multidimensional poverty framework to the context of protracted forced displacement. The approach provides insights into how humanitarian and development organizations can more optimally target assistance to alleviate immediate and future poverty.