Logotipo ImpactU
Autor

The Influence of Anthropogenic and Environmental Disturbances on Parameter Estimation of a Dengue Transmission Model

Acceso Abierto

Abstract:

Some deterministic models deal with environmental conditions and use parameter estimations to obtain experimental parameters, but they do not consider anthropogenic or environmental disturbances, e.g., chemical control or climatic conditions. Even more, they usually use theoretical or measured in-lab parameters without worrying about uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, or changes in control inputs. Thus, in this study, we estimate parameters (including chemical control parameters) and confidence contours under uncertainty conditions using data from the municipality of Bello (Colombia) during 2010–2014, which includes two epidemic outbreaks. Our study shows that introducing non-periodic pulse inputs into the mathematical model allows us to: (i) perform parameter estimation by fitting real data of consecutive dengue outbreaks, (ii) highlight the importance of chemical control as a method of vector control, and (iii) reproduce the endemic behavior of dengue. We described a methodology for parameter and sub-contour box estimation under uncertainties and performed reliable simulations showing the behavior of dengue spread in different scenarios.

Tópico:

Mosquito-borne diseases and control

Citaciones:

Citations: 0
0

Citaciones por año:

No hay datos de citaciones disponibles

Altmétricas:

Paperbuzz Score: 0
0

Información de la Fuente:

SCImago Journal & Country Rank
FuenteTropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
Cuartil año de publicaciónNo disponible
Volumen8
Issue1
Páginas5 - 5
pISSNNo disponible
ISSNNo disponible

Enlaces e Identificadores:

Artículo de revista