Abstract Oxidative mechanisms in tribological processes are commonly related with temperature and the real contact area. In this article, a lumped parameter dynamic model was developed to predict friction-generated oxide thicknesses in dry sliding conditions. The proposed model is based on conservative principles and causal equations applied to a pin-on-disk configuration in order to calculate the flash temperature with base on the heat transfer phenomena. Also, a mass balance was proposed to estimate the amount of hematite (Fe2O3), magnetite (Fe3O4), and wüstite (FeO) formed by friction heat. A new equation was proposed to predict the thicknesses of the oxides generated, and the model was validated based on experimental data available in specialized literature.