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Finding an Accurate Early Forecasting Model from Small Dataset: A Case of 2019-nCoV Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Acceso Abierto
ID Minciencias: ART-0000001791-172
Ranking: ART-ART_A2

Abstract:

Epidemic is a rapid and wide spread of infectious disease threatening many lives and economy damages. It is important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime so to decide on timely and remedic actions. These measures include closing borders, schools, suspending community services and commuters. Resuming such curfews depends on the momentum of the outbreak and its rate of decay. Being able to accurately forecast the fate of an epidemic is an extremely important but difficult task. Due to limited knowledge of the novel disease, the high uncertainty involved and the complex societal-political factors that influence the widespread of the new virus, any forecast is anything but reliable. Another factor is the insufficient amount of available data. Data samples are often scarce when an epidemic just started. With only few training samples on hand, finding a forecasting model which offers forecast at the best efforts is a big challenge in machine learning. In the past, three popular methods have been proposed, they include 1) augmenting the existing little data, 2) using a panel selection to pick the best forecasting model from several models, and 3) fine-tuning the parameters of an individual forecastingmodel for the highest possible accuracy. In this paper, a methodology that embraces these three virtues of data mining from a small dataset is proposed...

Tópico:

Forecasting Techniques and Applications

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Citations: 232
232

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Información de la Fuente:

SCImago Journal & Country Rank
FuenteInternational Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence
Cuartil año de publicaciónNo disponible
Volumen6
Issue1
Páginas132 - 132
pISSNNo disponible
ISSNNo disponible

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