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Insights into the dynamics and control of COVID-19 infection rates

Acceso Abierto
ID Minciencias: ART-0000716030-131
Ranking: ART-ART_A1

Abstract:

This work aims to model, simulate and provide insights into the dynamics and control of COVID-19 infection rates. Using an established epidemiological model augmented with a time-varying disease transmission rate allows daily model calibration using COVID-19 case data from countries around the world. This hybrid model provides predictive forecasts of the cumulative number of infected cases. It also reveals the dynamics associated with disease suppression, demonstrating the time to reduce the effective, time-dependent, reproduction number. Model simulations provide insights into the outcomes of disease suppression measures and the predicted duration of the pandemic. Visualisation of reported data provides up-to-date condition monitoring, while daily model calibration allows for a continued and updated forecast of the current state of the pandemic.

Tópico:

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Citaciones:

Citations: 26
26

Citaciones por año:

Altmétricas:

Paperbuzz Score: 0
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Información de la Fuente:

SCImago Journal & Country Rank
FuenteChaos Solitons & Fractals
Cuartil año de publicaciónNo disponible
Volumen138
IssueNo disponible
Páginas109937 - 109937
pISSNNo disponible
ISSN0960-0779

Enlaces e Identificadores:

Artículo de revista