This article intends to identify the variables that affect the risk of attack against former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – FARC – in their process of reintegration into civilian life. It does this through a holistic and inductive threat assessment. Through this methodology, the article identifies factors that are equally explanatory, and overlooked, in the currently widely used methods of risk analysis. These variables potentially correspond to a new model that can more accurately evaluate the likelihood, and therefore the prevention of, attacks on vulnerable populations; such as the ex-FARC members studied in this case.