Abstract We propose a Markovian model to calculate the winning probability of a set in a volleyball match. Traditional models take into account that the scoring probability in a rally (SP) depends on whether the team starts the rally serving or receiving. The proposed model takes into account that the different rotations of a team have different SPs. The model also takes into consideration that the SP of a given rotation complex 1 ( K 1 ) depends on the players directly involved in that complex. Our results help to design general game strategies and, potentially, more efficient training routines. In particular, we used the model to study several game properties, such as the importance of having serve receivers with homogeneous performance, the effect of the players’ initial positions on score evolution, etc. Finally, the proposed model is used to diagnose the performance of the female Colombian U23 team (U23 CT).