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Determinantes y evolución entre precios y cantidades de las exportaciones industriales de Colombia: un estudio a partir de un modelo de Panel-VAR

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Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the behavior of the Colombian exports of industrial goods based on an approach that separate the export value into prices (in USA dollars) and volumes.We quantify the effect of the main determinants that explain both the relative price formation of Colombian exporters and the demand for their products.The econometric methodology relies on a Panel vector autoregression (VAR) model with sectors.The results indicate that external demand has the greatest effect on Colombian industrial exports, especially due to the more than proportional impact on quantities shipped.Furthermore, real exchange rate elasticity of relative prices in dollars is low but statistically significant, which means that depreciations (appreciations) of the real exchange rate reduce (increase) the Colombian export prices relative to the international prices.Moreover, a reduction (increase) of relative prices of Colombian manufactures could cause a less than proportional increase (reduction) in the exported quantities.

Tópico:

Global trade and economics

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