The cytokine profile during acute chikungunya infection that predicts future chronic arthritis has not yet been investigated. We conducted a nested case-control study comparing serum cytokine concentrations during acute chikungunya infection in cases (n = 121) that reported the presence of chronic joint pain versus age- and gender-matched controls (n = 121) who reported recovery at 20 months post infection. We observed that a robust cytokine response during acute infection was correlated with a decreased incidence of chronic joint pain and that low TNFα, IL-13, IL-2, and IL-4 during acute infection was predictive of chronic joint pain. These data suggest that a robust cytokine response is necessary for viral clearance and cytokines that are related to immune tolerance during acute infection may be protective for chronic arthritis pathogenesis.