Eco-environmental change prediction models are important decision tools for policy makers as they help to quantify environmental sensitivity and understand the relationship between human activities and environmental quality. Thus, this paper aims to analyze eco-environmental changes in Monteiro County, a semi-arid zone within northeastern Brazil. This study used means of satellite images, geographic information system and global position system techniques, topographic map, climatic data and soil maps, as well as field survey data. The result outputs were evaluated on their ability to accurately predict the most sensitive and least sensitive areas. The results showed that land cover changes have modified the environment in general, and two prominent environmental degradation processes were identified: land degradation, and low soil loss. The mean soil loss increased from 0.09 t ha−¹ yr−¹ in 1987 to 0.18 t ha−¹ yr−¹ in 2010, as an effect of vegetation gain and particularly the conversion of thousands of square kilometers of Tropophile forest middle slope and barren land into Tropophile forest plain and Tropophile forest high strand. Thus, this study provides insight on territorial ordering and management of environmental services with a regional perspective.