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Baseline risk factors associated with the development of One and Two Years post-Chikungunya chronic inflammatory rheumatism, La Virginia, Risaralda, Colombia, 2015-2017
Background: Although there has been an increasing interest in studies assessing the progression to chronic phase of chikungunya (CHIK) disease, such as the post-CHIK chronic inflammatory rheumatism (pCHIK-CIR), yet there is a lack of studies the baseline risk factors influencing such progression. Methods & Materials: In February-June 2015, 283 patients were diagnosed with CHIK and enrolled in follow-up. From them, 152(53.7%) developed pCHIK-CIR > 12 weeks. After 2-year of follow-up, we analyzed demographic and clinical baseline risk factors that were associated with the persistence of pCHIK-CIR. Incidence according exposition (relative risk, RR) and proportions (χ2) with their respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), were calculated using Stata IC 14.0® licensed, p significant < 0.05. Those with other arboviroses during follow-up were excluded. Results: A total of 171 patients were assessed and valid for analyses after 1-year, 61.98% have pCHIK-CIR + then; 62 patients were assessed and valid for analyses after 2-years, 43(69.4%) corresponding to those that progressed to the development of pCHIK-CIR + and 19(30.6%) that were free of disease after 2-years(pCHIK-CIR-). Arthralgias of elbow, wrists, MCP, knees and ankles were all present in > 59%, baseline. Patients with female sex developed 1-year-pCHIK-CIR in 69.4% compared to 50.8% in males (RR = 2.198;95%CI 1.151-4.202) and at 2-year-pCHIK-CIR in 79.1% compared to 47.4% in males (RR = 1.669;95%CI 1.014-2.747), living in urban area 76.5% compared to 36.4% in rural area (RR = 2.705;95%CI 1.389-5.267), none or just primary education 86.7% vs 53.1% secondary and universitary (RR = 1.631;95%CI 1.145-2.325). Baseline myalgia was 83.8% in those that progressed to 1-year-pCHIK-CIR, compared to 56.8% (RR = 3.927;95%CI 1.535-10.048). Self-reported depression history was higher in those that developed pCHIK-CIR + (p = 0.062); live in a lower socieconomical level(p = 0.240), and age ≥45 y-old(p = 0.078. Conclusion: More studies are required, with larger size but also long-term assessment, in order to better define the risk factors. In areas that still present transmission and new cases of CHIK, such factors should be considered in order to enhance early interventions as well mitigation of the chronic consequences of CHIK infection.
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Public Health and Environmental Issues
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FuenteInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases