The research is framed in a quantitative explanatory approach, whose objective was to analyze a model to describe the unemployment rate conditioned to the probability of moving from an occupational state to a state of unemployment, in face of different characteristics of the graduation profile of the individuals from universities of North of Santander. Within this frame of reference, the changes in work status in graduates for the years 2014 and 2016 were studied; through multistage conglomerate sampling. Results: high predictive values and adequate adjustments characterized logit-type models adjusted. Through their coefficients, a measure of the differences in labor inertia between different academic programs was obtained. The adjusted logit model was an optimal model for measuring unemployment rate in professionals.