This paper presents a risk-based analysis method aiming at defining the risk profile associated with an offloading operation. For offloading operations the risk profile is usually evaluated considering that the environmental condition will not suffer considerable changes during offloading that has an approximate duration of 24 hours, varying based on the tanker size. The method follows four basic steps: Accident Modeling, Failure probability assessment with Bayesian techniques, Evaluation of consequences, and Markovian process to aid decision making. The method is applied to evaluate the risk profile of an offloading operation in Campos Basin, Brazil. The method is used to model the risk scenario associated with shuttle tanker main engine failure as initiating event. The changes in environmental conditions have great influence in risk profile and increase the probability of disconnection.