Significance Land-use change affects the provision of ecosystem services and wildlife habitat. We project land-use change from 2001 to 2051 for the contiguous United States under two scenarios reflecting continuation of 1990s trends and high crop demand more reflective of the recent past. These scenarios result in large differences in land-use trajectories that generate increases in carbon storage, timber production, food production from increased yields (even with declines in cropland area), and >10% decreases in habitat for one-quarter of modeled species. We analyzed three policy alternatives that provide incentives to maintain and expand forest cover, conserve natural habitats, and limit urban sprawl. Policy interventions need to be aggressive to significantly alter underlying land-use trends and shift the trajectory of ecosystem service provision.