Summary This study aims to define a methodology supported in the concept of Real Options that will allow measuring the impact of variations in the execution of projects, on the value of the investment portfolio of the Production Vice-presidency of Ecopetrol S.A. (PRV). The proposed methodology involves the classification of the potential value of the Real Options and the valuation of the same using the Binomial method, the Montecarlo simulation, and the calculation of explicit volatility; while proposing the 3D graphic representation of the so called portfolio of Real Options. The resulting methodology was validated using a real case of variation in two projects of the PRV portfolio in the year 2006 and it was possible to determine the way such change impacted the value of the same. This study aims to generate an important advance in management's way of thinking at Ecopetrol S.A., and the petroleum industry at large, basically in the recognition of the value that the sagacity of management decisions, regarding investment projects, has over the portfolio of the company.
Tópico:
Capital Investment and Risk Analysis
Citaciones:
3
Citaciones por año:
Altmétricas:
0
Información de la Fuente:
FuenteLatin American and Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference