Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes 1. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. "World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables," ST/ESA/SER.A/313 (Geneva: United Nations, 2011). 2. D.L. Carr, Population and Deforestation: Why Rural Migration Matters, Progress in Human Geography 33, no. 3 (2009): 355–378. 3. B. L. Turner, E. F. Lambin, et al., The Emergence of Land Change Science for Global Environmental Change and Sustainability, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104, no. 52 (2007): 20666–20671. 4. L. An and D. López-Carr, Modeling Coupled Human-Natural Systems: Research Directions, Ecological Modeling 229 (2012): 1–4. 5. See, for example, D. L. Balk, U. Deichmann, et al., Determining Global Population Distribution: Methods, Applications and Data, Advances in Parasitology, 62 (2006): 119–156. 6. J. Bremmer, R. Bilsborrow, et al., Fertility Beyond the Frontier: Indigenous Women, Fertility, and Reproductive Practices in the Ecuadorian Amazon, Population & Environment 30, no. 3 (2009): 93–113. 7. E. Sutherland, D. L. Carr, et al., Fertility and the Environment in a Natural Resource Dependent Economy: Evidence From Petén, Guatemala, Población y Salud en Mesoamérica 2, no. 1 (2004): 1-12. 8. D. L. Carr, W. K. Pan, and R. E. Bilsborrow, Declining Fertility on the Frontier: The Ecuadorian Amazon, Population and Environment 28, no. 1 (2006): 17–39. 9. See, for example, P. Meyfroidt, T. K. Rudel, et al., Forest Transitions, Trade, and the Global Displacement of Land Use, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107, no. 49 (2010): 20917–20922. 10. A. Barbieri, D. L. Carr, and R. E. Bilsborrow, Migration Within the Frontier: The Second Generation Colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon, Population Research and Policy Review 28, no. 3 (2009): 291–320. 11. L. Suter and D.L. López-Carr, Beyond the Middle of Nowhere: Out-Migration From the Agricultural Frontier in the Sierra del Lacandón National Park, Guatemala, Proceedings of the Latin American Studies 2012 International Congress (2012). 12. Carr, note 2 above. 13. R. A. Houghton, Land-Use Change and Tropical Forests, BioScience May, 44 (1994): 305–331; 14. N. Myers, "Tropical Deforestation Rates and Patterns. In Brown, K. and D. Pearce, Eds. (1994). The Causes of Tropical Deforestation: The economic and statistical analysis of factors giving rise to the loss of the tropical forests. London, University College London Press Ltd. 15. D.L. Carr, Population and Deforestation: Why Rural Migration Matters, Progress in Human Geography 33, no. 3 (2009): 355–378. 16. United Nations et al., note 1 above. 17. E. Kalipeni, Demographic Responses to Environmental Pressure in Malawi, Population and Environment 17, no. 4 (1999); and B. J. Wallace, How Many Trees Does It Take to Cook a Pot of Rice? Fuelwood and Tree Consumption in Four Phillippine Communities, Human Organization 54, no. 25 (1995): 182–186. 18. T. M. Hayes, Parks, People, and Forest Protection: An Institutional Assessment of the Effectiveness of Protected Areas, World Development 34, no. 12 (2006): 2064–2075. 19. E. Kalipeni, Demographic Responses to Environmental Pressure in Malawi, Population and Environment 17, no. 4 (1999); and B. J. Wallace, How Many Trees Does It Take to Cook a Pot of Rice? Fuelwood and Tree Consumption in Four Phillippine Communities, Human Organization 54, no. 25 (1995): 182–186. 20. D.L. Carr, A Tale of Two Roads: Land Tenure, Poverty, and Politics on the Guatemalan Frontier, Geoforum 37, no. 1 (2006): 94–103. 21. J. Ericson, M. Freudenberger, et al., Population Dynamics, Migration, and the Future of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science [AAAS] Program on Population and Sustainable Development [PSD], 1999), p. 39; P. H. Herlihy, 'Wildlands' Conservation in Central America During the 1980s: A Geographical Perspective, Conference of Latin American Geographers 17/18 (1990): 31–43; and J. H. Smith, Land-Cover Assessment of Conservation and Buffer Zones in the BOSAWAS Natural Resource Reserve of Nicaragua, Environmental Management 31, no. 2 (2003): 252–262. 22. W. F. Laurance, Switch to Corn Promotes Amazon Deforestation, Science 318, no. 5857 (2007): 1721. 23. D. C. Morton, R. S. DeFries, et al., Cropland Expansion Changes Deforestation Dynamics in the Southern Brazilian Amazon, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103, no. 39 (2006): 14637–14641. 24. D. L. Carr, Farm Households and Land Use in a Core Conservation Zone of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala, Human Ecology 36, no. 2 (2008): 231–248. 25. D. López-Carr, J. Davis, M. Jankowska, L. Grant, A. C. López-Carr, and M. Clark, Space Versus Place in Complex Human–Natural Systems: Spatial and Multi-Level Models of Tropical Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) in Guatemala, Ecological Modeling 229 (2012): 64–75. 26. P. M. Fearnside, Will Urbanization Cause Deforested Areas to be Abandoned in Brazilian Amazonia?, Environmental Conservation 35, no. 3 (2008): 197–199. 27. Suter and López-Carr, note 11 above. 28. Carr, notes 2 and 24 above, and Barbieri et al., note 10 above. 29. Carr, note 2 above. 30. R. S. DeFries, T. Rudel, et al., Deforestation Driven by Urban Population Growth and Agricultural Trade in the Twenty-First Century, Nature Geoscience 3, no. 3 (2010): 178–181. 31. Ibid. 32. M. C. Hansen et al., Humid Tropical Forest Clearing From 2000 to 2005 Quantified by Using Multitemporal and Multiresolution Remotely Sensed Data, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 105 (2008): 9439–9444. 33. T. M. Aide, M. Clark, R. Grau, D. López-Carr, D. Redo, M. Bonilla, M. Levy, The Deforestation and Reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001–2010). Biotropica (2012, in press); and D. Redo, "Asymmetric Forest Transition Driven by the Interaction of Socioeconomic Development and Environmental Heterogeneity in Central America, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 109, no. 23 (2012): 8839–8844. 34. Ibid. 35. R. R. Chowdhury and E. F. Moran, Turning the Curve: A critical Review of Kuznets Approaches, Applied Geography 32, no. 1 (2012): 3–11. 36. David López-Carr thanks T. M. Whitmore, R. E. Bilsborrow, and B. L. Turner II for their insights over the years in helping form some of these ideas. He also recognizes the following support for this research: National Institutes of Health Career Development Award, K01 (HD049008); National Science Foundation Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) (EF 0709627): National Science Foundation Geography and Regional Science Grant (BCS-0525592); and a University of California, Santa Barbara Faculty Career Development Award.