Phenacoccus manihoti Matile-Ferrero (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), one of the most serious pests of cassava worldwide, has recently reached Asia, raising significant concern over its potential spread throughout the region. To support management decisions, this article reports recent distribution records, and estimates the climatic suitability for its regional spread using a CLIMEX distribution model. The article also presents a taxonomic key that separates P. manihoti from all other mealybug species associated with the genus Manihot. Model predictions suggest P. manihoti imposes an important, yet differential, threat to cassava production in Asia. Predicted risk is most acute in the southern end of Karnataka in India, the eastern end of the Ninh Thuan province in Vietnam, and in most of West Timor in Indonesia. The model also suggests P. manihoti is likely to be limited by cold stress across Vietnam's northern regions and in the entire Guangxi province in China, and by high rainfall across the wet tropics in Indonesia and the Philippines. Predictions should be particularly important to guide management decisions for high risk areas where P. manihoti is absent (e.g., India), or where it has established but populations remain small and localized (e.g., South Vietnam). Results from this article should help decision-makers assess site-specific risk of invasion, and develop proportional prevention and surveillance programs for early detection and rapid response.